Friday, December 30, 2011

1st Week Team-by-Team Observations

Atlanta Hawks: They are quietly one of the Eastern Conference's best teams.  With primarily the same core group in place, their chemistry and team defense overcome their individual deficiencies.  They are playoff-bound again this year, but they will need a breakout performance from someone--possibly the aging Tracy McGrady--in order to defeat the Heat, Bulls, or Celtics in the playoffs.

Boston Celtics: It is too early to panic regarding the Celtics' early season struggles.  Paul Pierce is the heart of their offense and is a reliable matchup defender.  The main change to their rotation should be to separate Kevin Garnett and Jermaine O'Neal--both big men can still rebound and block shots but lack speed and lateral quickness due to constant knee problems, leaving the Celtics weak against faster-paced play when they are on the court together.

Charlotte Bobcats: The Bobcats have a decent mix of veterans and young players with an experienced head coach in Paul Silas.  However, they lack both a true point guard and interior scoring.  Rugged team defense will keep them competitive, but more time and more personnel are needed to get them back to the playoffs.

Chicago Bulls: The Bulls did what they were supposed to do in the offseason: sign Rip Hamilton.  Head coach Tom Thibodeau is one of the bright young defensive minds in the NBA; his defensive philosophy will continue to do wonders for this team.  They may be better prepared to face the Heat in a playoff rematch, but they are still very beatable--the young players on the bench need to keep improving in order to help limit the starters' minutes.

Cleveland Cavaliers: They have an undersized, below average quickness starting lineup that is still trying to get acclimated with each other, with rookie Kyrie Irving running the offense.  However, their bench is underrated with quickness and intensity.  Although they are not looking to make the playoffs, they are laying the foundation for a competitive team in the next couple of years.

Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks will have some trouble covering for the loss of Tyson Chandler via free agency.  However, with versatile acquisitions Delonte West, Lamar Odom, and Vince Carter, the team can utilize dangerous offensive lineups.  Look for Shawn Marion to play some center at some point (like his time in Phoenix a few years ago) to help take pressure off Brendan Haywood and Ian Mahinmi.  Should the team be unsuccessful in defending the NBA championship this year, a lightened payroll now opens up huge possibilities via free agency in the offseason.

Denver Nuggets: They are doing their best to compete while key rotation players remain out of the NBA until March due to Chinese basketball contract restrictions.  However, there is no guarantee that Kenyon Martin or J.R. Smith will be back with the Nuggets.  In their place, a combination of veterans and young players, including point guards Andre Miller and Ty Lawson, will keep this team in contention for a low playoff seed.

Detroit Pistons: They are in transition right now.  Head coach Lawrence Frank prefers gritty defensive play, but recent free agent signings Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon do not fit.  Likewise, Rodney Stuckey may be auditioning for a trade to teams such as the Bobcats and the Warriors.

Golden State Warriors: The Warriors are another team that quietly has developed a strong core group. With intelligent rookie coach Mark Jackson at the helm, they may sneak back into the playoffs this year.

Houston Rockets: There are no clear expectations for the Rockets.  They were expecting to pick up Pau Gasol via trade but instead were left with a strong group of players, including Luis Scola and Kevin Martin.  They are a balanced team that will also be competing for a low playoff seed in the West.

Indiana Pacers: They may be the most underrated team in the NBA.  With a deep rotation, they should make the playoffs and challenge for the 2nd round.

Los Angeles Clippers: Unfortunately for the Clippers, expectations by fans and analysts were set too high.  The Clippers lack a post-up game, with Blake Griffin relying heavily on scoring off the dribble with face-up moves.  Furthermore, Chris Paul and Chauncey Billups both need to handle the ball to be effective.  To balance things out, they should consider moving Caron Butler to shooting guard, acquiring a small forward, and pairing Billups on the bench with Mo Williams--allowing Williams to play some shooting guard like he did with Delonte West in Cleveland.

Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers are not an overwhelmingly good team like in years past, but they remain a very solid team.  Head coach Mike Brown and his staff have proven true to their words of studiously watching game tape of their personnel.  As last night's game versus New York was an indicator, the coaches know what spots and situations are optimal for each Lakers player, meaning they will run plays and sets specific to this.  If they can avoid injuries, Brown could be a surprise candidate for Coach of the Year.

Memphis Grizzlies: Everyone remembers the Mavericks and Thunder, but numerous people seem to forget about the Grizzlies.  Having taken down the Spurs in the playoffs last season, the Grizzlies have kept their core in place.  They may still struggle when the opponents have a superstar talent in his prime (i.e. Kevin Durant), but they are well-equipped to take on most teams in the NBA.


Miami Heat: No one can question their ability to win during the season--they are already 3-0.  Dwyane Wade and LeBron James are two of the best raw offensive talents in the last twenty years; rookie Norris Cole is a good complement to this.  As head coach Erik Spoelstra is a defensive mastermind, the Heat will continue to play an imposing team defense.  Clutch shooting questions aside, the real test for them will be playing slower-paced matchup defense deep in the playoffs, as Wade and James thrive on playing help defense to force turnovers and create fastbreaks.

Milwaukee Bucks: Brandon Jennings is still young, but a number of his peers are not anymore.  The Bucks must get acquainted quickly with Stephen Jackson and make a push for the playoffs now; any hesitation may mean another rebuilding effort.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Everyone knows their offense will flow much better this year with the additions of Ricky Rubio and J.J. Barea.  If Derrick Williams, Michael Beasley, and/or Darko Milicic can develop alongside Kevin Love, they may become one of the league's best frontcourts.

New Jersey Nets: Sadly, the Nets are caught in the intertwined pending free agencies of Deron Williams and Orlando's Dwight Howard.  Ideally, they will acquire Howard and sign both players to contract extensions.  If not, any progress made this year will be set back by the loss of Williams.

New Orleans Hornets: Head coach Monty Williams is definitely earning respect in New Orleans.  While David Stern and the NBA front office pushed Williams and GM Dell Demps aside in the Chris Paul sweepstakes, Williams remains a talented young head coach with a hungry group of players.  If the team can continue to develop chemistry, they may compete for a playoff berth.

New York Knicks: The Knicks might be the strangest franchise in the NBA today.  Head coach Mike D'Antoni is an offensive guru who likes his teams to run; however, stars Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire fare better in slower-paced offensive sets and isolation plays.  In Phoenix, D'Antoni benefitted from the defensive versatility of Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw; in New York, D'Antoni's best defenders are Tyson Chandler and Renaldo Balkman--neither of whom can guard all five positions.  Without the right personnel in place, D'Antoni will have to finetune his game-to-game tactics in order to make the Knicks a true Eastern Conference contender.

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder are one of the favorites to win the NBA Championship; a 4-0 start has further justified these expectations.  They have defined roles and can play well on both sides of the court.  Head coach Scott Brooks needs to continue to take advantage of the team's athleticism while helping his players further improve upon their weaknesses.  At the same time, Brooks needs to help the team ignore the media's criticism of Russell Westbrook.  As long as they stay focused, they should at least return to the Western Conference Finals.

Orlando Magic: Now that Chris Paul has settled down in Los Angeles, Dwight Howard may be the most powerful and the most coveted player in the NBA.  He is a clear-cut superstar talent that stays healthy and stays out of trouble.  The problem is, the Magic senses his departure and is now in flux until they can resolve this matter.  As it stands, Ryan Anderson and Glen Davis seem poised to put together career years in order to keep the Magic in contention for the championship.

Philadelphia 76ers: Head coach Doug Collins silenced a number of critics last season, proving that young talented players will still listen to him despite his age.  The 76ers remain an athletic team that likes to convert turnovers into fastbreaks.  They have not made any major changes or improvements since last year, so players such as Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner need to take their play to the next level in order to keep pace with the other Eastern Conference powers.

Phoenix Suns: Despite an 0-2 start, the Suns still have as good of chemistry as any team in the NBA; the problem is that their deficiencies are too obvious now.  They have added Michael Redd to gain leadership and steady outside shooting, but they need to add a veteran big man that can rebound and hit midrange jump shots to help Marcin Gortat and Robin Lopez develop.  Head coach Alvin Gentry is well-respected around the league but otherwise underrated by fans and the media; he has 64 more games to get the team back on track.  Stay tuned.

Portland Trailblazers: The Trail Blazers kept most of their core in place but lost Brandon Roy via career-ending injuries.  They are still one of the best teams in the West, but they could greatly benefit from the recovery and return of Greg Oden.  Oden's defensive presence in the paint could power the team into the later rounds of the playoffs.

Sacramento Kings: Head coach Paul Westphal now has Jimmer Fredette, Chuck Hayes, and J.J. Hickson to help him run his fast-paced offense.  If all of the young players can continue to develop, keep a positive attitude, and limit careless turnovers and fouls, they could be a surprise qualifier for the playoffs this year.

San Antonio Spurs: Barring the injury to Manu Ginobili, last year's Spurs were poised for a deep playoff run as the West's #1 seed.  However, just like last year, San Antonio is heavily reliant on the health of Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker.  This year, the Spurs replaced combo guard George Hill with pure point guard T.J. Ford, meaning that second-year player James Anderson and rookie Kawhi Leonard will need to learn on the fly in order to keep the rotation strong and allow Richard Jefferson to focus more on defense at this stage of his career.

Toronto Raptors: Head coach Dwane Casey may be just what the doctor ordered for the Raptors.  With mostly the same team in place, Casey's defensive genius--which helped the Mavericks win the NBA championship last season--could bring basketball relevance back to Toronto.  If not, Casey will be prepared to work with an evolving roster in the years to come.

Utah Jazz: Head coach Tyrone Corbin is dealing with the transition of a system (Jerry Sloan's) that has been around Salt Lake City for a long, long time--a stretch in which Corbin started at small forward alongside John Stockton and Karl Malone.  After trading franchise point guard Deron Williams last season, the team traded away key post player Mehmet Okur and did not re-sign top defender Andrei Kirilenko.  The Jazz have a number of fundamentally-sound players but are a work in progress.  As the Jazz are not expected to challenge for the playoffs this year, fans need to be patient to allow the front office and Corbin to re-shape the franchise.

Washington Wizards: The Wizards remain a young team, although they did bring back clutch shooter Roger Mason Jr.  While hype has surrounded young players John Wall, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche, the team should spend some time developing swingman Jordan Crawford.  If given a chance to play major minutes this season, Crawford has the scoring ability and versatility to be a franchise cornerstone with Wall.  Regardless, the Wizards are still at least a couple years away from a return to the playoffs.


Thursday, December 29, 2011

Cavaliers: Two Games in, 1-1 Record

Despite going on the road, the Cavaliers played much better in game number two of the 2011-2012 campaign, beating the Pistons in Detroit.  As was seen tonight under the guidance of coach Byron Scott and staff, tenacity on both sides of the court will serve this young Cavaliers team well.  Those who watched the first two games of the season could tell the Cleveland defense improved from its opening night performance at home versus Toronto.  Here are some other observations from the first two games.

Scouting is Critical: The Cavs did a good job of carrying over their scouting from the two preseason games into the game against the Pistons.  The team forced the Pistons--who have a lot of players that like to score off the dribble--into some tough shots, including forced jump shots after ball swings with the shot clock winding down.  Moreover, the Cavs exposed the Pistons' underdeveloped chemistry through smooth passing on offense.  During the game, it was obvious that Detroit's roster is still in transition, as coach Lawrence Frank and staff need time to determine players' roles and executive Joe Dumars needs time to entertain trades of players such as Rodney Stuckey (regardless of his new contract) and Ben Gordon.

On the other hand, Cleveland struggled against the Toronto Raptors, who entered the opening game with nearly the same roster as last season.  Aside from signing quiet sharpshooter Rasual Butler, the major change the Raptors made was bringing in head coach Dwane Casey, who served as Rick Carlisle's top assistant for the NBA champion Dallas Mavericks.  Unlike Frank, Casey inherited a team that has defined roles.  As DeMar DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani continue to develop as the team's future stars, strong guard play by Jose Calderon, Jerryd Bayless, and Leandro Barbosa remain critical to the Raptors' success.  What Casey is adding is a focus on hard-nosed defense.  In the opener, the Raptors' newly-emphasized defense made the Cavaliers' starters look lost.  Calderon's veteran savvy carried over to the offensive end, with numerous pick and roll plays against Kyrie Irving, Anderson Varejao, and Antawn Jamison.  As the Cavs struggled with the pick and rolls, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis controlled the boards for the Raptors.  In the next matchup, the Cavs should be better prepared for Toronto.

The Bench is Important: In the preseason, Byron Scott mentioned that he has followed the NFL especially closely in order to understand the nuances of a lockout-shortened training camp leading into the regular season.  In two games, Scott has proven true to his words.  The team has used 11 players in meaningful minutes to start the season.  While Cleveland's starting lineup may struggle against some tough matchups (such as Orlando with Dwight Howard), the bench looks prepared and equipped to challenge any bench in the NBA.  As back-to-back games come during the schedule, non-rotation players such as Christian Eyenga should also get added to the mix to help keep the other players fresh.

Strong bench play is not new to Cavaliers history.  Young players such as Terrell Brandon, Chris Mills, and Andre Miller earned their stripes off the bench before gaining promotion to the starting lineup, while veterans such as Nate Thurmond, Hot Rod Williams, and Bobby Sura played key minutes off the bench for successful Cavs teams.  In 2006-2007, some may recall that the bench lineup of Daniel Gibson, Damon Jones, Anderson Varejao, and Donyell Marshall played well alongside #23--closing out some games en route to the NBA Finals.  

The Rookies are Fundamentally Sound: Much has been said about Kyrie Irving's and Tristan Thompson's willingness to listen and abilities to learn.  In two games played, it is clear that both players also enter the league with developed fundamentals.  With strong ballhandling skills, Irving has shown the ability to run the offense smoothly and calmly while also attacking the rim.  With solid footwork and hands, Thompson has shown the ability to stabilize the team on both sides of the court.  Irving will do what he does more quietly while Thompson will make some noise in doing good things on the court.  Overall, both players can create plays through athleticism and vision.

Play to Strengths: While Antawn Jamison's jump shot has been on and off to start the season, he has turned to his underutilized slashing ability--which brought him national attention back in college several years ago.  Jamison has the ability to score off the dribble and draw fouls; he should focus on this while leaving the bulk of the perimeter shooting to strong spot-up shooters Omri Casspi and Anthony Parker.  Furthermore, Jamison and Varejao are good scorers on cuts to the basket; in the Princeton offense, they should be looking for these kinds of baskets on every play.

On the bench, the Cavaliers absolutely must capitalize on Daniel Gibson's sharpshooting.  While he does not have to be the leading scorer off the bench, his ability to hit timely shots should be considered as other players hit slumps over the course of the season.  If Scott and the coaching staff spend more time working with Gibson on catching and shooting off cuts and screens (think anywhere from Rip Hamilton and Reggie Miller to Steve Kerr--or on Scott's previous teams, Keith Van Horn, Kerry Kittles, Lucious Harris, Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, and Rasual Butler), Gibson could add a dimension to his shooting and score more points per game.

Improve on Weaknesses: Ramon Sessions and Alonzo Gee are turning heads with their improved play thus far.  While Sessions looks more focused on defense, he is displaying a greatly improved jump shot.  Combining slashing ability with consistent jump shooting will make Sessions very hard to guard on defense.  The key for Sessions is to use his newly found jump shot selectively and continue to grow comfortable with it during games.

Meanwhile, Gee looks a lot more capable on offense.  He has shown early on that he can distribute the ball from the paint and make pull-up jump shots.  His decision-making was not quite as good in Detroit, as he appeared to look more for fadeaway shots than straight-up pull-up shots.  If Gee commits to the short pull-up jump shot as a staple of his game, he could become a reliable bench scorer.

Obviously, other players need to make some improvements as well.  In Omri Casspi's case, he needs to be more aggressive in looking for his shot.  His skill set and instincts are reminiscent of the aforementioned Mills, who could shoot jump shots with the best shooters of his time but always looked to pass first.  With proper ball movement, Casspi should get plenty of shots this season.

Balanced Scoring Works: In a different era, Byron Scott's "Showtime" Lakers had 5-6 double-digit scorers per game each year in winning NBA championships.  Comparatively, the 80's Celtics had 3-4 double-digit scorers en route to winning NBA championships, a trend which carried over into the Jordan Era and Shaq/Kobe/Duncan Era.  However, the 2004 NBA champion Detroit Pistons--a team without superstars or surefire future hall-of-famers--had 5-6 double-digit scorers per game, both during the season and in the playoffs.  As the Cavaliers have a roster that fits the mold of the 2004 Pistons and are running an offense with principles of Scott's "Showtime" Lakers, balanced scoring should be emphasized going forward.


Sunday, December 25, 2011

NBA Regular Season Award & Stats Predictions

Awards
MVP: Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year: Kyrie Irving
Defensive Player of the Year: Rajon Rondo
Sixth Man of the Year: Shannon Brown
Most Improved Player: Shannon Brown
All-Star Game MVP: Derrick Rose

Stats Leaders (random order)
Points: Kevin Durant / Derrick Rose / LeBron James
Rebounds: Kevin Love / Dwight Howard / Blake Griffin
Assists: Steve Nash / Rajon Rondo / Chris Paul
Steals: Russell Westbrook / Rajon Rondo / Chris Paul
Blocks: Serge Ibaka / Josh Smith / Dwight Howard

NBA Championship Favorites

The NBA Championship will likely be won by one of the following teams (in no particular order):
  • Eastern Conference: Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics
  • Western Conference: Oklahoma City Thunder, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, San Antonio Spurs

Why can they win the NBA championship?
  • Bulls: With a healthy lineup, the team boasts stellar rebounding and defense, the reigning MVP (Derrick Rose), and a bonafide clutch playoff perimeter shooter (Rip Hamilton), giving the team more firepower than last season to challenge the other top contenders.
  • Heat: The offense will benefit from LeBron James and Chris Bosh posting up more this season, while key acquisitions Norris Cole and Shane Battier give the team additional talent at the point guard position and a consistent wing defensive stopper; Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller remain strong bench contributors.
  • Celtics: Playoff experience and team chemistry remain strengths as an aging core seeks one more championship run while the rising star point guard (Rajon Rondo) will demand more respect this season, possibly earning Defensive Player of the Year honors in the process.
  • Thunder: This team is young, energetic, talented, and cooperative with lots of heart, room for improvement, and a future league MVP (Durant); they have a deep rotation with clearly defined roles, which stands out even more in a lockout-shortened season.
  • Mavericks: Led by a couple future hall of famers (Kidd, Nowitzki), they evolved from underdogs to NBA champions last year through high shooting efficiency on offense and clever defense, forcing opponents to take lower-percentage shots and limiting their free-throw shooting opportunities; they also did well in replacing talent lost via free agency.
  • Grizzlies: They are a young, well-balanced team with a capable point guard (Conley Jr.), multiple scoring options, and a tough team defense that led the league in forced turnovers last season; this combination of traits enabled them to upset the #1 ranked Spurs and take the Thunder to a full seven-game series in last year’s playoffs.
  • Spurs: This is arguably the best coached team in the NBA, with the team making the playoffs every year since drafting Tim Duncan in 1997; the team retains most of its core players and was well-equipped last season to take on every playoff team other than the Grizzlies.

Why will they have a tough time winning the NBA championship?
  • Bulls: They will still be heavily reliant on the offensive rebounding of Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer, and Taj Gibson and the long minutes of Rose; they also had injury problems last season, preventing Noah and Boozer from gaining valuable experience playing together on the court, and may have similar concerns regarding Hamilton this season.
  • Heat: Battier and Miller play the same positions as James and Dwyane Wade, meaning they will likely sit out during various clutch time situations while James and Wade stay in regardless of the situation; furthermore, the team is leaning on Joel Anthony and Eddy Curry for quality minutes at center and may need to make upgrades or play Bosh and Haslem at center instead.
  • Celtics: Their Big Three may be out of gas, Jeff Green is out for the season, they traded away Glen Davis, and they are not committing to Rajon Rondo as the centerpiece of their future; this leaves them vulnerable to both young, well-balanced, fundamentally sound teams with multiple scoring options (like the Grizzlies) and teams with comparable star power (like the Heat).
  • Thunder: Russell Westbrook needs to improve his clutch play while Kendrick Perkins has not yet fully embraced the team’s culture; the team as a whole needs to improve its efficiency on defense, as almost all NBA champions since 1980 have ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions).
  • Mavericks: Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson were key components to last year’s championship team and will be missed while key acquisition Vince Carter has not seen a contending team improve upon his acquisition since his departure from Toronto (this includes the New Jersey Nets, Orlando Magic, and Phoenix Suns); in the meantime, Jason Terry’s unresolved contract situation may become a distraction.
  • Grizzlies: They are a team of several semi-stars/stars but no superstars at the moment; it is debatable how much more room they have to grow as individuals and as a team.
  • Spurs: They have an aging core group and continue to have injury problems yet traded away key reserve/substitute starting guard George Hill; last year, Memphis proved the Spurs are vulnerable to younger fundamentally-sound teams with multiple scoring options.  

NBA Team Chemistry Rankings: Preseason

Christmas Day is here, meaning that the 2011-2012 NBA regular season is ready to begin!  With several moves made by teams prior to and after the lockout, team chemistry has changed for most teams.

As always, team chemistry rankings are a relative concept; in evaluating this preseason's rankings, teams were believed to be in one of three tiers: 1st-11th, 12th-22nd, or 23rd-30th.  For example, while the defending champion Dallas Mavericks rank 5th in the season's first list, the Miami Heat rank 8th; both teams have had some upgrades and changes to their rosters and appear to have about the same quality of team chemistry.  By ranking, the Sacramento Kings are not that far behind at 12th, but their chemistry is thought to be quite a bit behind the Mavericks and Heat.

Ranking at the top is one of the teams favored to win the NBA championship this season: the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder made minimal changes to their roster and did a good job of creating better team balance in acquiring Kendrick Perkins last season.  Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies are another young rising team that functions very well.  Both teams should be in the mix for the best record in the Western Conference.

Other young teams rising in the rankings are the Sacramento Kings, Minnesota Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, and Washington Wizards.  The Kings, Timberwolves, and Cavaliers should be especially exciting to watch this year with their key rookie additions.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles area teams and New York area teams (Clippers, Lakers, Knicks, and Nets) are all looking to improve their team chemistry and team capabilities this year.  Of these four teams, the Lakers are the most likely to make additional roster changes to improve team balance while staying in contention for the NBA championship.  At the same time, the Nets remain in the rumors in the Dwight Howard sweepstakes, but the likelihood of a trade during the season has been weakened by the injury to Brook Lopez.  

Here are the full preseason team chemistry rankings (previous rankings are in parentheses): 

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder (2)
  2. Memphis Grizzlies (3)
  3. San Antonio Spurs (5)
  4. Phoenix Suns (8)
  5. Dallas Mavericks (1)
  6. Indiana Pacers (7)
  7. Chicago Bulls (9)
  8. Miami Heat (12)
  9. Boston Celtics (4)
  10. Atlanta Hawks (10)
  11. Portland Trail Blazers (6)
  12. Sacramento Kings (19)
  13. Philadelphia 76ers (14)
  14. Orlando Magic (23)
  15. Los Angeles Clippers (18)
  16. Los Angeles Lakers (11)
  17. Golden State Warriors (17)
  18. Minnesota Timberwolves (30)
  19. Houston Rockets (13)
  20. Cleveland Cavaliers (26)
  21. Detroit Pistons (27)
  22. Washington Wizards (28)
  23. New York Knicks (24)
  24. Milwaukee Bucks (16)
  25. New Jersey Nets (20)
  26. Denver Nuggets (25)
  27. Utah Jazz (21)
  28. New Orleans Hornets (15)
  29. Charlotte Bobcats (22)
  30. Toronto Raptors (29)

Thursday, December 22, 2011

NBA Team Chemistry Rankings: 2010-2011 Closeout


In sports, analysts and media outlets across the country regularly post power rankings.  Likewise, analysts and media outlets also post preseason capsules to predict teams' regular season records.  For the most part, these rankings are based on past and recent wins and losses, various statistics, and other subjective observations.  Team chemistry is occasionally mentioned but oftentimes is completely excluded from these official ranking processes.  

This season, I have decided to start posting periodic rankings of team chemistry across the NBA.  This should give an additional perspective in regards to evaluating how well teams are developing, how well players are getting along, how well players function together within each team, and how much injuries and roster transactions affect teamwork.  Isolating team chemistry as a separate evaluation tool may suggest how well teams are prepared to handle the challenges of playoff basketball.  There is no standard statistical process for ranking the teams--like power rankings, my team chemistry rankings will consider past and recent wins and losses, various statistics, and other subjective observations.  

To start, here is a closeout of the 2010-2011 season.  In winning the NBA Championship as underdogs throughout the playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks claimed the top spot.  While the Miami Heat were the runners-up, my observation was that there were several other teams in the NBA that had better balance and better on-court chemistry than the Heat.  Please note that playoff teams are marked with an asterisk (*).  
     
  1. Dallas Mavericks*
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder*
  3. Memphis Grizzlies*
  4. Boston Celtics*
  5. San Antonio Spurs*
  6. Portland Trail Blazers*
  7. Indiana Pacers*
  8. Phoenix Suns
  9. Chicago Bulls*
  10. Atlanta Hawks*
  11. Los Angeles Lakers*
  12. Miami Heat*
  13. Houston Rockets
  14. Philadelphia 76ers*
  15. New Orleans Hornets*
  16. Milwaukee Bucks
  17. Golden State Warriors
  18. Los Angeles Clippers
  19. Sacramento Kings
  20. New Jersey Nets
  21. Utah Jazz
  22. Charlotte Bobcats
  23. Orlando Magic*
  24. New York Knicks*
  25. Denver Nuggets*
  26. Cleveland Cavaliers
  27. Detroit Pistons
  28. Washington Wizards
  29. Toronto Raptors
  30. Minnesota Timberwolves

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Quick Additional Takes on Recent NBA News

Baron Davis Amnesty Clause Release: This was a tough call to make, as Davis brought leadership and confidence to the Cavs last year, not to mention the Clippers' #1 pick, which was used to draft Kyrie Irving.  Davis will still be paid while his back injury heals, and his departure clears up space both in the salary cap and on the roster--a win-win for all involved.

It should be pretty exciting to see Irving, Ramon Sessions, and Daniel Gibson get their time--Sessions and Gibson showed very good court chemistry together last year.  Likewise, the on-court chemistry of Anthony Parker and Omri Casspi should make the offense look a lot more fluent.  Lastly, having Anderson Varejao back in the lineup with Tristan Thompson coming off the bench should help build up the defense's identity.  Defense is as important to coach Byron Scott as it was to coach Mike Brown; many analysts and fans miss the fact that Scott's playoff teams in New Jersey and New Orleans ranked in the Top 5 in fewest points allowed per game.

Chris Paul Trade to Clippers: As the dust clears from the deal that finally cleared the NBA's jurisdiction, it is evident that youth and future potential were preferred over current abilities.  As the GM and head coach, Dell Demps and Monty Williams would have loved to have Lamar Odom, Kevin Martin, and Luis Scola in their starting lineup with Goran Dragic backing up Jarrett Jack.  A first-round draft pick added future potential.  Should things have not been looking good after half a season to a season, the Hornets could have made additional trades of these capable players to make proper adjustments.  In the end, it is hard not to feel at least a little bit sorry for Demps and Williams in this drawn out situation.

Regardless, the team needed to trade Chris Paul rather than watch him walk away via free agency.  Eric Gordon is a younger option as opposed to Martin while Al-Farouq Aminu still has time to figure out his potential.  Chris Kaman brings a skill set to the table that is comparable to Luis Scola, and his natural fit at center will allow Emeka Okafor to play his natural position of power forward.  Add in a first-round pick and the Hornets received adequate compensation for their former franchise point guard.

Meanwhile, the Clippers gain Chris Paul, who is one of the best point guards in the game today.  If he can stay healthy, he may go down as one of the best NBA point guards ever.  His impact will be immediate, as he now gets to partner with Blake Griffin and Andre Jordan.  Odds are that Paul and Chauncey Billups share a lot of time on the court together, causing mismatches for some opponents.  If they can experience early success, there is a decent chance Paul spends several years with the team.

However, the injury bug has hit Paul a couple times during his career; he also tends to play through several nagging injuries.  Paul is a great player now, but many guards with an all-out style are forced to scale back later in their careers (for example, Allen Iverson).  Adding in the fact that Griffin had a major injury a couple years ago, the Clippers now have their futures invested in 2 good but risky players--similar to the days of the talented but injured Ron Harper and Danny Manning.  Even staying healthy, the Clippers only have Paul under contract for the next 2 years.  After 2 years, he could walk away from the Clippers, instead of the Hornets, with no compensation awaiting.

Bulls Sign Hamilton: The Chicago Bulls did something that a number of contending teams struggle to do after a disappointing ending in the playoffs: fill a need.  Looking back, had the Bulls successfully landed Hamilton last season before the trade deadline, they may have been in the Finals versus the Mavericks instead of the Heat.  Hamilton brings Reggie Miller-like sharpshooting and cutting to the lineup and is at the very least serviceable on defense.  If his defense is subpar compared to his defense earlier in his career, his frequent movement on offense will still wear down opposing players and break the monotony of the Derrick Rose isolation sets.  This also will help reduce the team's reliance on the offensive rebounding of Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, as the key to stopping the Bulls last season was less about stopping the MVP Rose and more about boxing out Boozer and Noah.

The Bulls still need to keep their post players healthy, though, and Hamilton joins the team coming off an injury-plagued season.  Moreover, Hamilton became part of a counterculture forming in Detroit last season, so the team will need him to put the bad memories of a losing season in the past.  If Hamilton can bring the mindset that he and his 2004 champion Detroit Pistons had, the Bulls could finally return to the Finals without Jordan, Pippen, and Phil Jackson leading the way.

Mavericks Trade Fernandez and Brewer, Sign West: The Mavericks may have brought Lamar Odom and Vince Carter to town, but Rudy Fernandez appears ready to have a breakout year.  Sending Fernandez to Denver may be a move the team regrets down the road, but they recovered nicely by adding Delonte West.  As for Brewer, he was used sparingly, so it makes sense to clear the logjam of swingmen that the Mavs have and also reduce payroll.  The included second round pick may have been more filler than anything, as the team has not drafted well in recent years.

Meanwhile, the additions of Odom and West will help fill the void of super mismatch J.J. Barea, who helped power the team towards the NBA championship.  Odom's and West's versatility on both sides of the court will blend well with the versatility of Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry, with their ballhandling skills taking some pressure off Jason Kidd.  Similarly, their defensive abilities will help cover for the loss of DeShawn Stevenson, who could guard multiple positions.  As it stands, the Mavericks made some good moves to help them in their pursuit of a second NBA championship.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

NBA Early Pre-Season Moves Analysis

The NBA has had a new active collective bargaining agreement (CBA) for only a few days now, but there have been a lot of roster transactions with more rumors, negotiations, and moves ahead.  Here is a look at some of the early moves.

  • Irving, Thompson, and Casspi to the Cavaliers.  The Cleveland Cavaliers drafted Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson and acquired Omri Casspi as potential franchise cornerstones.  In the process, the team traded away popular rising post player J.J. Hickson.  The Cavs have some decisions to make regarding the amnesty clause with Baron Davis, re-signing Anthony Parker, and trading Ramon Sessions.  While Irving has drawn many comparisons to Chris Paul, the team would be better served to keep Davis or Sessions in front of Irving for at least his rookie year.  While Paul had two full years of highly competitive NCAA basketball at Wake Forest, Irving had one injury-shortened season of 11 games at Duke.  Past point guard apprenticeships for the Cavs include Mark Price (behind John Bagley), Terrell Brandon (behind Price), and Andre Miller (behind Brevin Knight).  In Knight's case, he went from starting under coach Mike Fratello to All-Rookie First Team status to coach Randy Wittman's doghouse to journeyman over the course of a few years--no one wants to see that happen with Irving, so they need to groom him the right way.  While Thompson will need to improve his free-throw shooting and jump shooting, his defense and offensive rebounding should be exciting to watch.  Likewise, Casspi is a great fit in coach Byron Scott's Princeton offense, offering sharpshooting and unselfish team play.  The Cavs still need to figure out the center position, with Anderson Varejao, Ryan Hollins, and Semih Erden currently being the only 3 options.  It will be interesting to see what the team does with Davis and Sessions or if teams such as former coach Mike Brown's Lakers come calling about Varejao or Daniel Gibson.  
  • Battier and Curry to the Heat.  The majority of analysts and fans have said that the Miami Heat need help at center and point guard.  In general, additional bench help and youth also are high priorities.  The Heat have responded by trading for draft pick point guard Norris Cole on NBA Draft night, who should be a solid addition.  The team has also re-signed point guard Mario Chalmers and sharpshooting swingman James Jones.  For veterans, the team has added Shane Battier and Eddy Curry.  Battier is a solid swingman and rotation player; his defense and perimeter shooting are his primary assets.  However, on a Heat team that plays Dwyane Wade and LeBron James 37-43 minutes a game at shooting guard and small forward, it will be hard for Heat fans to watch Wade and James play inconsistent defense in key games down the stretch with Battier on the bench left to watch.  James needs to play some power forward or Wade some point guard for the Battier signing to fully work.  Meanwhile, Curry is a huge question mark.  His fight with health and fitness problems the past few years may render him a non-factor, much like Jamaal Magloire and Erick Dampier last season.  However, more help may be on the way if Chauncey Billups opts to sign with the Heat.  Billups' floor leadership and clutch shooting would be a huge gain for the defending Eastern Conference champions.
  • Chandler and Bibby to the Knicks.  After picking up Iman Shumpert and Josh Harrellson in the NBA Draft, the team waived Chauncey Billups to clear cap room, then traded Ronny Turiaf to bring in Tyson Chandler and signed Mike Bibby.  The move to add Chandler to the New York Knicks rotation is overall solid.  Chandler is a good complement to Amar'e Stoudemire because he will provide the power and defense that Stoudemire lacks.  At the same time, Stoudemire did not mesh well with Shaquille O'Neal on coach Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns roster, so the move might not go as smoothly as expected by analysts.  Still, Chandler in his prime will likely complement Stoudemire better than Shaq did past his prime.  Meanwhile, Bibby's play has declined quite a bit over the past couple of years, so moving Billups in favor of Bibby may be a net loss at point guard.  Only the season will tell how much better--or, gasp, worse--these moves make the Knicks.
  • Odom and Carter to the Mavericks.  The team is looking to move on without Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, and Peja Stojakovic and possibly J.J. Barea as well.  In their places, the team has added Rudy Fernandez, Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, Brandan Wright, Andy Rautins, and draft pick swingman Jordan Hamilton.  Of the outgoing players, Chandler is clearly the biggest loss.  Now, had the team been adding Vince Carter by himself to be a cornerstone, the signing may have been viewed skeptically.  However, the influx of swingmen and combo forwards gives the team lots of versatility, takes a large amount of pressure off the aging Carter to impress, and shows that the Mavericks want to keep winning games and championships--now and in the future.  Furthermore, Odom's ability to play anywhere from point guard to power forward will help with opponents' mismatches, allowing the Mavs to create their own mismatches on the court.  It should be a good season for Dallas; the postseason, as always, is to be determined.  Beyond that, the team needs to extend its commitment to Jason Terry or else find a new franchise point guard to cover for his and Jason Kidd's eventual departures.   
  • West and Hill to the Pacers.  The Indiana Pacers were a rising franchise last year that changed head coaches midseason.  Needing to add some veteran experience to bolster the roster, the team has added power forward David West and point guard George Hill; more moves are anticipated.  The Pacers are picking a very good time to make moves towards championship contention and stability, as the East's best teams are mostly going the flashy route to build up their teams.  On teams with a "Big Three" group of players, an injury, conduct concerns, or poor chemistry can break a team fast.  However, the Pacers appear to be building up a deep, well-rounded team.  If West, Hill, Darren Collison, Tyler Hansbrough, and potential pickups (like O.J. Mayo) can step up with Danny Granger, Indiana may be a force to be reckoned with in the next few years.  
  • Butler to the Bulls.  The Chicago Bulls have been relatively quiet thus far, adding steady rookie swingman Jimmy Butler in the NBA Draft.  Butler's perimeter defense and spot-up shooting should fit in well and help and team compete with top contenders like the Heat and Celtics.  The Bulls should see some additional moves before the season kicks off, with veterans such as Rip Hamilton adding much needed support to Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, and Carlos Boozer.  There is a chance Dwight Howard could make it to the Bulls, but if the team refused to move Joakim Noah to bring in Carmelo Anthony a few months ago, it is hard to believe a strong enough trade package could be put into place to get Howard from Orlando.  
  • Davis and draft picks to the Magic.  Before the lockout, the Orlando Magic made nice NBA Draft pickups in Deandre Liggins and Justin Harper.  After the lockout, the Magic made a nice trade in sending decent backup big man Brandon Bass to Boston for rising post player Glen Davis.  The team was also able to release quirky former All-Star guard Gilbert Arenas via the amnesty clause.  Unfortunately, the Magic also have a bit of a crisis going on, with Dwight Howard asking to be traded as soon as possible.  It is not clear what a trade of Howard will bring back to Orlando, but the team needs at least one cornerstone in return or else risk falling back into rebuilding mode in the next 2-3 years.  GM Otis Smith may fall victim here or could prove his true value to the franchise.  Stay tuned.
  • Hickson, Salmons, Biyombo, Fredette, et. al. to the Kings.  The Sacramento Kings found themselves in a win-win situation in acquiring J.J. Hickson from the Cavaliers.  Both Hickson and Casspi should get good experience and exposure playing for new teams.  Hickson may or may not start to start, but he offers good protection behind foul-prone youngster DeMarcus Cousins and inconsistent youngster Jason Thompson.  While Salmons brings some veteran leadership and stable play at small forward, Biyombo and Fredette are both considered projects at the NBA level.  Early on, the ceilings seem high for both players, so it will be interesting to see them playing alongside potential rising stars in Hickson, Cousins, Thompson, and point guard Tyreke Evans.  Hopefully for the Kings, some of these young players reach their full potential.  Otherwise, rebuilding efforts may end up taking place in a city other than Sacramento.    
There are obviously more moves that have already been made and other signings/trades in the works--the outlandish multiyear offer by the Warriors to rising post player DeAndre Jordan is one.  More news will be on the way in the days leading up to Opening Day Christmas Day.  Again, stay tuned...